Rule of Law or Rule by Law? Or Neither Anymore?

Are the Recent Political and Social Developments in Turkey Heralding a New Wave of Migration to Europe? How Would Switzerland Be Affected?

INTRODUCTION

Since 2002, the AKP regime and Erdoğan, who have been in power in Turkey, began to distance themselves from democracy and the rule of law after the corruption operations conducted on December 17 and 25, 2013, revealed a bribery and corruption network amounting to billions of dollars. After the disclosure of this network built by Erdoğan and his family, the government launched a witch hunt, portraying every opposing group as an enemy through numerous anti-democratic practices and hate speech. As in every autocratic regime, repression and human rights violations increased, and from that point on, asylum applications from Turkey to EU countries rose significantly. While the annual number of applications previously ranged around 4,000–5,000, after 2014 this steadily increased, reaching 100,000 by 2023. According to EU data, Turkish citizens ranked third after Syrians and Afghans in asylum applications between 2014 and 2024. This surge is undoubtedly due to the authoritarian and unlawful practices of the regime in Turkey.

On July 15, 2016, the coup attempt—widely considered a “false-flag” operation—gave Erdoğan the opportunity to become a one-man ruler, and from that point on, human rights were completely suspended in Turkey. According to the 2023 statistics of the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), 23,397 of the total 68,450 pending cases originated from Turkey, corresponding to approximately 34.2% of all cases.

In the last ten years, the regime has increasingly abandoned the rule of law and has not hesitated to use all means of repression to stay in power. Controlling the opposition through the media, judiciary, and police under its command, the regime attempts to sustain its political existence with de facto and unlawful implementations. Having been involved in many national and international crimes, the regime is now on a path of no return, fighting for survival. A potential regime change and restoration of the rule of law in Turkey would be a total disaster for the regime. Therefore, in addition to attempting to prevent any possible change in power, the regime has entered a phase where it will not hesitate to violently suppress any public opposition using the judiciary and police under its control. As part of this strategy, on March 19, 2025, the regime had Ekrem İmamoğlu, Mayor of Istanbul and the most prominent potential rival for the presidency, arrested on charges of corruption, thus aiming to reinforce its grip on power.

Following this incident, protests and street demonstrations erupted across Turkey, reflecting public outrage. The regime launched anti-propaganda campaigns through its media channels, and hundreds of people were detained and subjected to torture for participating in these peaceful protests. Media outlets and journalists aligned with the regime labeled the demonstrations as terrorist activities and openly threatened Turkish citizens who might take part. A clear example of the regime’s stance came from journalist Cem Küçük, who is widely considered a spokesperson of the ruling powers. In an article dated April 2, 2025, published in a pro-government newspaper, he wrote: “The army, police, judiciary, and institutions have been restructured. About 70% of today’s security bureaucracy was appointed after July 15. Now, opposition figures who don’t understand the new system continue to deceive their base. They still believe they can win elections.”

This statement openly reveals the regime’s belief that democratic change through elections is no longer possible in Turkey, and that any public resistance will be suppressed by the judiciary, police, or even military. In a televised program, the same journalist reacted to actors being removed from state TV after criticizing İmamoğlu’s arrest, saying: “Those citizens are a minority and have no significance in Turkey! If you work for state TV, you cannot support CHP propaganda! If you do, you have no place at TRT and will be fired—you deserve it.”

Another journalist seen as a regime mouthpiece, Rasim Ozan Kütahyalı, posted on his X account: “Yes… What we are experiencing is the Second Republic… Its founding date: July 15, 2016. Just as one couldn’t return to a constitutional monarchy after founding the First Republic in 1923 by casting a vote, Atatürk didn’t allow that. Similarly, we cannot return to the First Republic by casting a vote. I confess this not with joy but sorrow. Yet this is the reality.”

These statements plainly declare that democracy in Turkey has effectively ended, and that a dictatorial regime has been established.

In light of all these developments, it is likely that police violence, mass detentions, torture, and imprisonments will increase in parallel with rising public outrage. In the first week of the protests, around 2,000 people were detained across the country, and 316 of them were arrested. Although the regime tries to manage this anger and crisis in a controlled manner due to fear of nationwide escalation, it is far from taking any reasonable steps to calm the masses. The relationship between the regime and the public has reached a breaking point, one that could be described as a complete “emotional rupture.” Either the regime returns to the rule of law—which appears unlikely, considering the magnitude of crimes committed—or it will continue its repressive policies, using all state resources to maintain power at any cost. The recent events clearly show that the regime has chosen the latter.

Is a New Migration Wave from Turkey Possible?

Considering current statistics, it seems likely that the recent developments in Turkey will trigger a new wave of asylum seekers. However, this wave may differ from the previous ones—it could be larger and more powerful, driven by a broader population with different motivations. While earlier repression mostly targeted specific groups and ideologies, the regime now sees the entire 85-million-strong population as a threat, excluding only its loyal supporters.

The hopelessness described as an “emotional rupture” has started to engulf the entire society. The frustration and despair now visible on the streets create a vicious cycle: anti-democratic practices fuel street protests, and those protests, in turn, are met with regime violence.

Potential Scenarios and Costs for Switzerland

Given this situation, Turkish citizens—already familiar with Europe through relatives and networks—will increasingly see seeking asylum in EU countries as an escape from a regime that strips them of freedom of expression and the right to life.

Let’s consider a simple mathematical estimate based on existing data:

• On average, 10% of Turkish asylum applications in the EU are submitted to Switzerland.
• As of 2022, Turkey’s population was 85,279,553, with approximately 43 million people aged 20–50.
• Opposition parties (CHP, DEM, and Yeniden Refah) received 60% of the vote in the 2024 local elections.

Thus, around 25 million people in the 20–50 age group could be considered potential regime opponents or asylum seekers (excluding families). If just 10% of them apply for asylum in the EU, this equates to 2.5 million people.

Assuming 10% of these applications are made to Switzerland (a figure that could rise given increased regime pressure), about 250,000 Turkish citizens could seek asylum in Switzerland. Including families, the number would be even higher.

The average annual cost to the Swiss government per refugee—including housing, healthcare, social aid, and integration programs—is estimated at 50,000 Swiss Francs. If 250,000 applications are accepted, the annual cost could reach 12.5 billion Swiss Francs.

Additionally, growing anti-immigrant sentiments across Europe—seen in the rise of far-right parties in Germany, France, and the Netherlands—alongside the United States’ tightening refugee policies under Trump, may push Turkish refugees toward more neutral and migrant-friendly countries like Switzerland.

International Developments and Turkey’s Role

Meanwhile, in the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war, the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency and his subsequent withdrawal of military and financial support to Ukraine may lead the EU to rely more on Turkey’s military power. This may result in muted criticism of Turkey’s human rights abuses by the EU, thereby emboldening Erdoğan’s regime and contributing to further unrest and potential migration waves.

The Turkish regime, willing to appease Trump on Syria and other international matters in exchange for non-intervention in domestic politics, is unlikely to face pressure from the U.S. either.

CONCLUSION

There is no longer a democratic environment in Turkey capable of ending the regime’s unlawful actions. Furthermore, given the current geopolitical landscape, meaningful pressure from the U.S. or Europe also appears unlikely.

With rising anti-immigration sentiment in Europe and the far-right gaining strength, the developments in Turkey may deeply affect the continent’s refugee dynamics once again. Given Switzerland’s traditionally neutral stance and relatively rational and humane refugee policies, it may become a prime destination in any new migration wave.

It is now crucial for both the EU and Switzerland to take political actions and adopt preventive policies before the storm arrives. These include:

• Pressuring Turkey to uphold its commitments to international human rights treaties,
• Monitoring developments through observer missions,
• Ensuring ECHR rulings are recognized by Turkish courts,
• Calling on top EU officials, including the European Commission President, to publicly demand compliance with universal legal norms.

If such measures are not taken, the regime will persist—and hundreds of thousands of Turkish citizens will continue to seek freedom and justice at Europe’s doorstep. The Turkish government would not be disturbed by this; on the contrary, it would prefer that anyone who opposes it leaves the country so that it can maintain control with a submissive population.

It must be clearly understood: as long as the regime survives, continues to repress its opponents, and violently suppresses even the most peaceful protests, hundreds of thousands of Turkish citizens will remain potential asylum seekers at Europe’s gates.